As the world's population nears 9 billion, it's important to consider this trend: humans are getting bigger, bigger and need more calories than in the past. In summary, the population of tomorrow will be taller, heavier and will eat more. This study in bio-demography, at the crossroads of biology and demography, alerts in an original way, in the journal Sustainability, to the great question of food security and the need to modify our habits in the spirit of a mode of more responsible life.
Researchers at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology have adapted a dynamical systems model often used in industrial ecology to study the stocks and flows of resources soon to be needed to feed 9 billion people. "It will be extremely difficult to feed 9 billion people in 2050 compared to the current situation", summarizes the main author, Gibran Vita, doctoral candidate in Industrial Ecology.
According to the WWF association, the greatest environmental problem in the world is the destruction of habitat, fauna and flora. Much of this "devastation" is related to the needs and demands of a continuously growing human population. If “Zero Hunger” is the second United Nations Sustainable Development Goal, the challenge will also be to meet the growing demand for food products in the world.
An average human will need more food in the future than today: this is the idea developed by these researchers who highlight changes in eating habits, attitudes towards food waste , the increase in height and body mass of the average adult, and demographic and cultural trends and transitions.
Because on a biological level, "people" change: From this point of view, the team analyzed the evolution of the population of 186 countries between 1975 and 2014 and focused more particularly on the effects of 2 phenomena: humans have grown taller and fatter on average, and the average population is aging.
- The first phenomenon contributes to the increase in food demand.
- The second thwarts the first.
So an average adult in 2014 is 14% heavier, about 1.3% taller, 6.2% older, and ultimately needs 6.1% more energy than in 1975.
The trend should continue in most countries:
- an average adult consumed 2,465 kilocalories per day in 1975. In 2014, their average caloric intake reached 2,615 kilocalories;
- still on a global scale, human consumption increased by 129% during the study period;
- population growth accounts for 116%, increase in weight and height for 15%;
- finally, the elderly need a little less food, but this reduction is only estimated at 2%.
The extra food needed roughly corresponds to the combined food needs of Indonesia and Scandinavia.
There are considerable differences between countries:
- weight gain per person from 1975 to 2014 ranges from 6 to 33%;
- the increase in energy requirements from 0.9 to 16%.
- A person from Tonga weighs on average 93 kilos. An average Vietnamese 52 kilos. This means that the former need 800 more kilocalories per day (about four bowls of oatmeal).
- Some countries are changing faster: in the Caribbean, the average weight has gone from 62 kilos in 1975 to 82 kilos 40 years later. The lowest and highest changes occur in Asia and Africa, reflecting the disparities between countries in these continents.
This study thus recalls the major trends, without forgetting some , whereas most previous studies had not taken into account the growth in size and weight of individuals as well as the impact of the aging of our societies. In summary, the food needs of an average adult can only increase. It is imperative to take all of these factors into account to meet future demand and prevent food insecurity.
Relevant information, in particular for the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), a leader in the fight against food insecurity.
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